Pubblicato il 5 nov 2019

Solve this classic game theory challenge: given integers from 0 to 100, what would the whole number closest to ⅔ of the average of all numbers guessed be?

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Given a range of integers from 0 to 100, what would the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average of all numbers guessed be? For example, if the average of all guesses is 60, the correct guess will be 40. The game is played under conditions known to game theorists as “common knowledge:” every player has the same information- they also know that everyone else does too. Lucas Husted explains.

Lesson by Lucas Husted, directed by Anton Trofimov.

Animator's website: www.antontrofimov.com

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View full lesson: ed.ted.com/lessons/game-theory-challenge-can-you-predict-human-behavior-lucas-husted

Thank you so much to our patrons for your support! Without you this video would not be possible! Clement, Hadi Salahshour, FAWWAZ GHUWAIDI, Dino Biancolini, Reagen O'Connor, Nicu Boanda, Cindy O., Karla Brilman, Jørgen Østerpart, Sergi Páez, rakesh Katragadda, Carolyn Corwin, Charlene You, Boris Langvand, Exal Enrique Cisneros Tuch, Carsten Tobehn, Kin Lon Ma, Katie Dean, Ezgi Yersu, Eunsun Kim, Katrina Harding, Gerald Onyango, alessandra tasso, Astia Rizki Safitri, Côme Vincent, Antony Lee, Melissa Sorrells, Rakshit Kothari, Doreen Reynolds-Consolati, Simon Holst Ravn, Manognya Chakrapani, Ayala Ron, Samantha Chow, Philippe Spoden, Phyllis Dubrow, Michelle Stevens-Stanford, Cas Jamieson, Ophelia Gibson Best, Amber Wood, Paul Schneider, Jun Cai, Tim Robinson, Henrique 'Sorín' Cassús, cnorahs, Lyn-z Schulte, Elaine Fitzpatrick, Karthik Cherala, Clarence E. Harper Jr., Milad Mostafavi and Аркадий Скайуокер.

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Given a range of integers from 0 to 100, what would the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average of all numbers guessed be? For example, if the average of all guesses is 60, the correct guess will be 40. The game is played under conditions known to game theorists as “common knowledge:” every player has the same information- they also know that everyone else does too. Lucas Husted explains.

Lesson by Lucas Husted, directed by Anton Trofimov.

Animator's website: www.antontrofimov.com

Sign up for our newsletter: bit.ly/TEDEdNewsletter

Support us on Patreon: bit.ly/TEDEdPatreon

Follow us on Facebook: bit.ly/TEDEdFacebook

Find us on Twitter: bit.ly/TEDEdTwitter

Peep us on Instagram: bit.ly/TEDEdInstagram

View full lesson: ed.ted.com/lessons/game-theory-challenge-can-you-predict-human-behavior-lucas-husted

Thank you so much to our patrons for your support! Without you this video would not be possible! Clement, Hadi Salahshour, FAWWAZ GHUWAIDI, Dino Biancolini, Reagen O'Connor, Nicu Boanda, Cindy O., Karla Brilman, Jørgen Østerpart, Sergi Páez, rakesh Katragadda, Carolyn Corwin, Charlene You, Boris Langvand, Exal Enrique Cisneros Tuch, Carsten Tobehn, Kin Lon Ma, Katie Dean, Ezgi Yersu, Eunsun Kim, Katrina Harding, Gerald Onyango, alessandra tasso, Astia Rizki Safitri, Côme Vincent, Antony Lee, Melissa Sorrells, Rakshit Kothari, Doreen Reynolds-Consolati, Simon Holst Ravn, Manognya Chakrapani, Ayala Ron, Samantha Chow, Philippe Spoden, Phyllis Dubrow, Michelle Stevens-Stanford, Cas Jamieson, Ophelia Gibson Best, Amber Wood, Paul Schneider, Jun Cai, Tim Robinson, Henrique 'Sorín' Cassús, cnorahs, Lyn-z Schulte, Elaine Fitzpatrick, Karthik Cherala, Clarence E. Harper Jr., Milad Mostafavi and Аркадий Скайуокер.

## Commenti

The results are in! With over 5,800 responses, the average guess was 8.96, so the correct guess for 2/3 of the average was 6. 169 people (3% of those who submitted answers) guessed the right answer. Well done, 3%ers! Thanks for playing, everyone! Keep an eye out for future game theory games.

The Guess distribution is "Possion distribution ",lambda value is 1.6. Because video say "for ted audiences, average is 31. So answer is 21." Thus K0-level guess 21, 2/3 is 14. So K1-level guess 14, and so on. We can get expectation is 8.213. Very close to answer.

Hey! You forgot the results?

@Fed-cap 24 Yep, the realization that 0 is the best choice would come easier since multiplying a number by 2/3 reduces its absolute value, not necessarily its distance from the lower extreme.

I guessed 17.

0, always 0.

The same conclusion could be reached without the 2/3rds part of the question, right?

So basically, Chess is a K reasoning game?

this wasn't exactly a diddler as it had no concrete answer but very good video my 2 guesses were 0 and 16 before the answer

i guess 87654345678987654321234567898765434567

>Tfw you guessed 22 >Tfw you forgot about the average

I often stop at K level -1....so i can continue to breathe

Wouldnt it make more sense for the perfect logicians to choose 1, since its the whole number closest to 2/3 of the average, and 2/3 of 1 rounded is still 1?

No because that would basically be assuming that the average is 1.5, which is likely not going to happen.

You know how in the OG club penguin You had the card game in the dojo I would be like “So he will do fire So I will do water But he might then to snow So I’ll do fire But then he might do water-“ And it would end up that the other person would just choose fire but I wouldn’t chose water because I overthink life

I live in America. I NEVER expect people to be perfectly rational.

I'm so confused😂

I don't understand why a whole number to represent 2/3 would be another than 67

Basically Scofield vs Poseidon in prison break

I didnt understand this at all.

Oo i was k1....and since i'm average that means almost every1s k1 so i should be k2 and choose 22....

What

I can detect my mother's and gfs behavior just by how they breathe.

Monica: They don't know that we know that they know that we know they know (Idk if I got that right)

Chandler: Now the messers become the messies

The results were probably tainted by many many 69s

15 i believe

Hi bro how are you ?? I would suggest you please make a video on what will happen when india , Bangladesh and Pakistan merges again (it will gain you millions of views for sure )

I guessed 12

I’m that person who always guesses 50

0

well i am a gamer sooooooooooooo

This video immediately started with math so I clicked off

and the narrator is brilliant as always

beautiful animation btw

well the question itself would require the participants to not be rational. there's only one way to benefit everyone so people would naturally be sceptical of others. it is essentially a test on how little you trust people would look out for you. I believe if you change the question so it can test collaboration it would result in people helping achieve the maximum benefit for all

0

but that’s just a theory, a game theory!

Mind blowing !

?

The only issue I see with this k-level system is that it didn't take me 12 levels to notice the pattern and deduce that 0 *Should* be the right answer. The step that came after wasn't to make it more mathematically logical, but trying to decide how wrong everyone else was

Anything you want to know about Human Behavior just ask Björk 🤔

Which software you use for create stunning animations?

Does the knowledge of k levels mean that people who take the game are still inclined to play at k level 1/2 or will they go for the Nash equilibrium?

So K-level is basically "I know that you know that I know that you know that I know that you know that I will do X."

het, thats just a theory, a game theory

when people not gain or lose anything in your game most of them not go in higher K-level and just say a number random. don't feel The need for it, just want to skip, not want to wast unnecessary energy. so real life situation like stock market wouldn't be this simple and fallow this expectance perfectly.